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What usually happens is people generate keygens, cracks or serials for new software as soon as it comes out but the publisher normally clamps down as there are only a few dodgy keys and they're easy to spot.
Once the programs have been out for a while and the hackers have had the time to come up with proper keygens they normally work and aren't spotted by the publishers when they connect to their servers for updates.
As for the eBay copies I don't really know whether they are "genuine" copies that have fallen off the back of a lorry or illegal downloads packaged up and sold on. It'd be easy to tell if you bought one though!
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